Brij has it about right...

While the jury is out on whether Israel or Hezbollah attained their war objectives, a quick anecdotal poll of Russian, Chinese and Indian analysts suggests that in the eyes of the wider world the real loser is the United States.

Together with the bloody mess in Iraq, the mess in Lebanon is a set back for American prestige and influence. In India, where President George Bush is more liked than in almost any other Asian country, there is concern that Hezbollah has outwitted him on all counts.

President Bush says Hezbollah has been defeated as it will no longer be a state within a state because south Lebanon will be occupied by non-Hezbollah troops.

In contrast, although Chinese, Russian and Indian analysts hail from very dissimilar countries they are reaching similar conclusions that Hezbollah’s position has been strengthened.

Within Lebanese politics, Hezbollah’s prestige will be so unassailable that its Christian, Sunni and Amal Shiite rivals will not be able to criticize it openly for some time to come. Nor will any Arab government be able to castigate it for fear of angering the street.

Therefore, the most likely prospect is that Hezbollah’s fighters will be integrated into the Lebanese army instead of being asked to disarm. That will make them very influential because of their experience in fighting Israel. Their addition might also make Shiites the overall majority in the army. As such, a mere militia will have access to all the modern panoply, including command and control skills, of a national army.

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.grupo-utopia.com/blog/mt/mt-tb.cgi/2552

Posted by: Jay Tea at August 15, 2006 03:16 AM